Fantasy Football 2022 Under-the-radar rookies: 10 sleeper rookies to know in your leagues

James Robinson was not selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. But by the end of his rookie season, the Jaguars running back helped plenty of Fantasy managers win their leagues with his more than 1,400 total yards and 10 total touchdowns. In 2021, sixth-round rookie Elijah Mitchell rushed for 963 yards in 11 healthy games while fourth-round selection Amon-Ra St. Brown was a league-winner off of the waiver wire for many Fantasy managers.

The odds are against relative no-name players like Robinson, Mitchell, and St. Brown having such a massive impact. Outliers aren't easy to identify until after the fact, and trying to find 2022's ASB is likely to be a fruitless endeavor.

While the probability of identifying a "league-winner" among the late 2022 rookie picks is not high, we still might be able to find a few undervalued rookies capable of elevating their Fantasy value in a big way if things break their way in Year 1. Here are 10 names to keep an eye on and potentially pounce on in leagues with deeper benches as rookies who could play their way into a roster spot in many leagues this year.

I detailed the top rookies at QB, RB, and WR, if you want more information on the class as a whole. Check it out:

Rookie QB analysis
Rookie RB analysis

Rookie WR analysis
Rookie WR route tree data
Rookie WR target depth data

Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers

Romeo Doubs needs to beat out two of the following three -- Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, or Christian Watson -- for playing time. If he finds the field, Doubs had decent enough data to believe that he could find some semblance of Fantasy value while catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. 

While his data profile is decent, nothing stood out as especially impressive; this is a situation where you are mostly betting on a rookie's circumstances. I'm not sure that Green Bay will continue to be a lucrative Fantasy destination for wide receivers in the post-Davante Adams era, though. The Packers again project for a low passing attempt total while playing at one of the NFL's slowest paces, and it wouldn't surprise me if none of Green Bay's wide receivers crack the top 36 at their Fantasy position in 2022.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills

If Doubs didn't inspire you to use a late-round pick, then it's possible that Khalil Shakir is more of your flavor. Shakir doesn't have a clear path to playing time as a rookie, but his data profile suggests that he could be an exciting Fantasy producer if given regular routes in a Josh Allen-led offense.

Shakir's name kept popping up during the research that I did on the 2022 class. I dug into the route-specific data for the 2022 rookie WR class to gain a better understanding of which players ran NFL-level routes in college and if they found success when running such routes -- all of that research is recorded in this article.

On the "Big Four" routes that are utilized the most frequently by NFL offenses, Shakir had the second-highest target per route run rate and the third-highest yard per route run rate. He did have a high scripted touch route frequency but certainly wasn't reliant on it -- on non-scripted touch routes, Shakir ranked first in TPRR and YPRR rate.

If there's an injury to Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, or Jamison Crowder, Shakir will become a popular name in Fantasy. And there's an outside chance that he outright takes the starting job from Crowder, who is on a one-year $2 million deal. Crowder's yard per route run rate decreased by 56 percent from 2020 to 2021, for what it's worth.

Hassan Haskins, RB, Tennessee Titans

Tennessee selected the 6-foot-1 and 220-pound Hassan Haskins in Round 4 ahead of bruisers like Tyler Allgeier, Snoop Conner, and Keaontay Ingram, and he could step into a featured role on early downs if Derrick Henry's well-worn tires fail him again.

Haskins only brings one year of starting experience, and the data that he gave us in that one year isn't exciting. Tyrion Davis-Price is the only rookie back who avoided tackles at a lower rate in 2021. Haskins showed questionable vision with a yard before contact rate that was 9.1 percent below his RB teammate average; that discrepancy ranked 11th among the 20 rookie backs that I evaluated. Combining a low avoided tackle rate with a low yard before contact rate is usually a recipe for a really low explosive rush rate, and that held true for Haskins. He ranked 13th in the percentage of rushes that resulted in a gain of 10-plus yards and 14th in the percentage that gained 20-plus yards. And to top it off, Haskins was a non-factor as a pass-catcher.

It's not all bad, though. Haskins' straight-ahead running style allowed him to convert positive results at a much higher rate than his teammates while running behind subpar blocking at Michigan. His career rushing success rate was 8.6 percent better than his RB teammates -- only Kenneth Walker and Tyler Allgeier had a higher discrepancy.

I have almost no exposure to Derrick Henry in 2022, so Haskins is a lottery ticket that I am gladly scooping up at the end of deep season-long drafts. I have also found myself a bit higher on him than consensus when it comes to Dynasty formats, which surprised me. I'm not all that into Haskins as a prospect, but his position as Henry's direct backup does provide him with the opportunity to play a significant role if the aging RB has to miss any time.

Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders

After Malik Willis, Sam Howell is the rookie QB that I have the most exposure to in Dynasty formats. Carson Wentz's reckless play style has left him with a long history of injuries -- if Wentz misses time, Howell could slide in and find success with a talented group of pass-catchers in Washington.

Howell was a tough tackle to make during his time at North Carolina, boasting a career avoided tackle rate better than that of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts. The majority of his rushing came in 2021, which coincides with North Carolina's offense losing Dyami Brown, Michael Carter, and Javonte Williams to the NFL Draft. With fewer playmakers available, Howell took it upon himself to move the chains.

Howell's rushing yards by season:

2019 -- 35
2020 -- 146
2021 -- 829

Howell's 2021 was one of the most efficient single-season rushing outputs we have seen from a QB over the past five seasons. Really, Malik Willis' 2021 is the only season that rivals it.

Single-season avoided tackle rate:
(minimum 100 rushes)

48% -- Malik Willis (2021)
36% -- Sam Howell (2021)
33% -- Malik Willis (2020)
25% -- Matt Corral (2020)
22% -- Lamar Jackson (2017)
21% -- Kyler Murray (2018)
21% -- Jalen Hurts (2019)

Single-season rushing success rate:

68% -- Sam Howell (2021)
67% -- Malik Willis (2021)
63% -- Lamar Jackson (2017)
62% -- Malik Willis (2020)
59% -- Jalen Hurts (2017)
59% -- Kyler Murray (2017)

Single-season explosive rush rate:
(percentage of rushes that gained 10 or more yards)

30% -- Malik Willis (2020)
29% -- Kyler Murray (2018)
26% -- Lamar Jackson (2017)
26% -- Jalen Hurts (2017)
25% -- Sam Howell (2021)
23% -- Malik Willis (2021)

While Howell's rushing production picked up in a major way while playing without his primary playmakers in 2021, the same cannot be said for his passing efficiency. His passer efficiency rate was a career-low in 2021, while his interception rate was a career-high.

Scouts question Howell's arm talent, and many of his passing metrics do suggest that he may struggle at the NFL level. Add just a fifth-round draft capital to the equation, and there's a decent chance that Howell never makes an impact in the NFL. You shouldn't be drafting him as if he will, though. Howell is extremely cheap after his fall to Round 5. I make sure to grab him at the end of deep Superflex drafts -- if Wentz misses extended time, Howell could be a weekly top-20 Fantasy QB if his rushing metrics translate to the pros.

Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos

Following Denver's trade for Russell Wilson, I became quite excited about Albert Okwuegbunam's potential to step into a regular role in place of Noah Fant. On a per route basis, Albert O has been one of the NFL's most efficient tight ends in his two seasons with the Broncos. After the trade, I wrote, "if the Broncos don't add a tight end who is a threat to Okwuegbunam's playing time, there's a realistic chance that he steps into a highly Fantasy-relevant role in Year 3." It was fun speculating about Albert O's top-12 potential while it lasted.

Greg Dulcich is absolutely a threat. On a per-route basis, Dulcich's name is right up there with some of the most explosive tight ends drafted in recent years.

Career yard per route run rate:

2.86 -- Harrison Bryant
2.42 -- Isaiah Likely
2.36 -- Kyle Pitts
2.11 -- Trey McBride
2.04 -- Greg Dulcich
1.81 -- Brevin Jordan
1.64 -- Pat Freiermuth

An explosive downfield weapon, Dulcich is a perfect complement to Albert O -- Okwugbunam's average depth of target was just 5.7 yards in 2021, while Dulcich's 13.2-yard career aDOT at UCLA is the highest among 57 qualified tight ends. If he earns regular playing time, Denver's Round 3 selection could fit well with Russell Wilson -- the NFL's leader in average depth of target in 2021.

Tyler Badie, RB, Baltimore Ravens

From strictly a data-based standpoint, Tyler Badie brings one of the most complete profiles of any RB in the class. He's also 5-foot-8, 197 pounds, and wasn't drafted until Round 6.

Larry Rountree stood in Badie's way of a three-down role prior to 2021, but Baltimore's sixth-round selection carved out a role for himself on passing downs as a true freshman in 2018. Badie's career body of work as a pass-catcher is extremely impressive, and he elevated his game to a nation-leading level by his final two seasons.

Badie wasn't just a passing downs specialist, though. He was a full-fledged three-down workhorse in his final season. Badie accounted for 72.8 percent of Missouri's RB rushing share in 2021, a higher rate than Walker's share at Michigan State. Only Hall and Allgeier accounted for a larger chunk of their team's RB rushes. A player who Badie is often compared to is Kenneth Gainwell -- like Badie, Gainwell was a prolific career passing down contributor who broke out in a major way as a rusher and receiver in his final collegiate season. Gainwell's 1,459 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns came on just a 56 percent share of Memphis' backfield rushing attempts, though.

Badie's advanced metrics suggest that he deserved a crack at a three-down role earlier than he got it. During their time together at Mizzou, Badie's rushing success rate was 13.7 percent better than Rountree's! It's pretty rare for a younger teammate to convincingly outperform an NFL-level RB in the same backfield.

Badie's CFB data is exciting, and he landed on a Baltimore roster where the top two RB options both are recovering from reconstructive knee surgery. During the Lamar Jackson era, Baltimore has neglected the RB position in the passing game. Even if his competence as a pass-catcher doesn't translate to high target totals as a Raven, it is a strength that could earn Badie playing time on third downs over Mike Davis as a rookie. And if either of J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards suffers a setback, Badie could find himself in a Fantasy-relevant role in Year 1.

Trestan Ebner, RB, Chicago Bears

Baylor used Trestan Ebner as more of a positionless weapon than a running back. At 215 pounds, Ebner isn't the undersized type of player we typically find in a gadget type of role. But at no point in his career did he command more than 35 percent of Baylor's RB rushing attempts, and Ebner's efficiency on his limited short-yardage opportunities was by far the worst among the 2022 rookie class.

Film analysis often notes Ebner as an indecisive runner, and his rushing metrics back that notion. He was significantly worse than his RB teammates in both rushing success rate (-14.2 percent career discrepancy) and yards before contact (a hard-to-believe -20.2 percent career discrepancy). His career yard per rush average came in 11.7 percent below the Baylor RB average.

So, why are we even talking about Chicago's sixth-round selection?

Two reasons:

1. Ebner recorded a career avoided tackle rate of 45 percent on 320 attempts.

2. Ebner piled up 1,248 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air.

Career target per route run rate:
(minimum 300 routes)

23.8% -- Tyler Badie (701 routes)
22.2% -- Trestan Ebner (704 routes)
21.7% -- Tony Pollard (545 routes)
20.7% -- D'Andre Swift (434 routes)
20.3% -- Kyren Williams (444 routes)
20.2% -- Saquon Barkley (321 routes)
20.1% -- James Cook (368 routes)
18.6% -- Travis Etienne (695 routes)

Career yard per route rate:

2.15 -- Trestan Ebner
1.98 -- James Cook
1.97 -- Saquon Barkley
1.82 -- Tony Pollard
1.66 -- Travis Etienne
1.64 -- Tyler Badie
1.53 -- D'Andre Swift
1.52 -- Kyren Williams

What type of impact will Ebner have at the NFL level? Your guess is as good as mine. There's clearly upside, though. If I have a bench spot available in Dynasty formats or even deep PPR season-long leagues, Ebner is exactly the type of stash that I would make.

Calvin Austin, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Calvin Austin is a smaller and less productive version of Khalil Shakir. He benefited from scripted touches but was also one of the most efficient producers in the class on non-scripted touch routes. He was a highly successful downfield route runner at Memphis. If context is removed, Austin's analytical profile is one of the best in the class.

He has no clear path to playing time, but Austin's data makes him worth a bench stash in Dynasty if you believe that he can continue to find success as a downfield route runner.

Kyle Phillips, WR, Tennessee Titans 

The clear best-case archetype for Kyle Phillips is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Nothing from St. Brown's data profile stood out as exceptional, and he appeared to be wholly dependent on opportunities from the slot to have any shot at Fantasy viability.

And like St. Brown, Phillips landed in an offense that could use a playmaker from the slot. Treylon Burks was used primarily as a slot weapon at Arkansas, which I believe was a mistake. If the Titans drafted Burks to be the A.J. Brown replacement, then Phillips could start from the slot with Robert Woods running from the other perimeter spot. It's more likely that Phillips is just a part of a rotation in the slot, but any chance of Year 1 playing time deserves our attention at Phillips' ADP.

Kennedy Brooks, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Rhamondre Stevenson was one of my favorite overlooked prospects entering the 2021 NFL Draft, and he showed flashes of excellence as a rookie -- totaling 295 yards from Weeks 9-11. As members of the same backfield in 2019, Kennedy Brooks was the clear workhorse, handling 155 attempts to Stevenson's 64.

In 2018, as a true freshman, Brooks took away a significant chunk of third-round selection Trey Sermon's workload. Sermon out-carried Brooks 164-to-119, but Brooks out-gained the veteran starter 1,056 to 947 on the ground. For his career, Brooks sat at roughly two percent above the Oklahoma RB average in rushing success rate and yards per attempt, even while sharing the backfield with a third and fourth-round NFL pick.

Brooks could be elite as a rusher.

In addition to outproducing NFL prospects in the same backfield, Brooks posted an avoided tackle rate above 30 percent in all three seasons at Oklahoma. Only Ebner and Walker avoided tackles at a higher career rate. Brooks also was the class's most explosive rusher, statistically. 20.6 percent of his career attempts gained 10 or more yards -- James Cook (18.7 percent) and Ebner (18.1 percent) were the only other two above 17.5 percent. 7.8 percent of Brooks' attempts gained 20-plus yards -- Cook (7.4 percent) and Walker (6.7 percent) were the only other backs above six percent.

Brooks brings next-to-nothing as a pass-catcher, but he legitimately might have what it takes to work as the preferred early-down option for an NFL team. He's a name to watch as training camp and preseason progress.